Guinea-Bissau recently joined a troubling list: African nations where military officers have seized power since 2020. Following gunshots and the arrest of President Umaro Sissoco Embaló, the small West African country became the latest to fall prey to a growing pattern of military takeovers.
This isn’t an isolated incident. Across the continent, particularly in West and Central Africa, a “coup contagion” is challenging democratic progress. From Mali’s two successive coups to Burkina Faso, Niger, Guinea, Gabon, and Sudan, the narrative is strikingly similar. Common threads include disputed elections, leaders attempting to extend their terms through constitutional changes, widespread youth discontent, and a struggle against insecurity like terrorism or corruption.
In nations like Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger, military leaders have not only consolidated power but also formed their own regional bloc, distancing themselves from international calls for a swift return to democracy. Sudan, after its 2021 coup, spiraled into a catastrophic conflict between rival military factions. Similarly, Gabon saw a military takeover after its long-serving president declared victory in an election critics deemed fraudulent.
These military interventions, often promising stability or an end to corruption, frequently lead to greater political uncertainty, international isolation, and, in some cases, violence. They represent a significant setback for democratic governance and stability, leaving many wondering about the future trajectory of these nations.
