Forget the headlines of imminent peace – European intelligence chiefs are sounding a stark warning about the chances of ending Russia’s war in Ukraine this year. Despite US President Donald Trump’s claims that US-brokered talks are “reasonably close” to a deal, top European spy agencies paint a very different picture.
Speaking anonymously, these intelligence heads reveal a deep skepticism. They believe Russia isn’t genuinely looking for a quick peace agreement. Instead, Moscow is using these talks, described by one chief as “negotiation theatre,” primarily to push for sanctions relief and lucrative business deals, all while pursuing its core strategic goals: the removal of Ukrainian leader Volodymyr Zelensky and establishing Ukraine as a “neutral” buffer.
This outlook highlights a significant divide between European capitals and the White House. While Washington, according to Ukraine, hopes for a deal by June, European officials insist Russia’s fundamental objectives haven’t changed. They don’t believe Russia’s economy is on the brink of collapse, removing any urgency for a swift resolution on Moscow’s part. Even if Ukraine were to concede territory like the remaining parts of Donetsk, intelligence sources suggest this would merely be the beginning of further Russian demands, not a swift path to peace.
Adding to the complexity, the US negotiation team, led by a real estate developer and the President’s son-in-law, reportedly lacks specific diplomatic expertise on Russia or Ukraine. This has raised concerns among some European officials about the effectiveness of the current approach.
Ultimately, the message from Europe’s intelligence community is clear: Russia is playing a long game, and true peace might be a distant prospect, regardless of optimistic assertions from Washington.
